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This paper examines what drives GDP growth in economies characterized by complexity and uncertainty across various countries.

Economic growth in uncertain times: insights from complexity, human capital and governance in developed and developing economies

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Panel analysis investigates GDP growth drivers in developed and developing economies, suggesting specific policy implications.

This paper examines what drives GDP growth in economies characterized by complexity and uncertainty across various countries.
Analyzed a panel of 117 countries from 1996 to 2021 using a two-way fixed-effects specification.
Re-estimated models for sub-samples of 28 developed and 89 developing economies for direct comparison.
Conducted robustness checks including lagged log GDP to control for conditional convergence.
Uncertainty negatively impacts growth across all models, particularly affecting developed economies with greater financial integration.
In developed economies, governance factors such as political stability and accountability significantly influence growth, unlike traditional measures.
Economic complexity shows a negative effect on growth in developing economies due to short-term structural adjustment costs.

Kostis et al. (2026) studied this question.

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View Full Paper

Ask AI

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Authors

Panel analysis investigates GDP growth drivers in developed and developing economies, suggesting specific policy implications.

This paper examines what drives GDP growth in economies characterized by complexity and uncertainty across various countries.
Analyzed a panel of 117 countries from 1996 to 2021 using a two-way fixed-effects specification.
Re-estimated models for sub-samples of 28 developed and 89 developing economies for direct comparison.
Conducted robustness checks including lagged log GDP to control for conditional convergence.
Uncertainty negatively impacts growth across all models, particularly affecting developed economies with greater financial integration.
In developed economies, governance factors such as political stability and accountability significantly influence growth, unlike traditional measures.
Economic complexity shows a negative effect on growth in developing economies due to short-term structural adjustment costs.

Kostis et al. (2026) studied this question.

View Full Paper

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