Information-based policy-making in the handling of unexploded ordnance: the use of statistics in probabilistic risk analysis in the Netherlands

In the Netherlands, unexploded ordnance (UXO) is still discovered on a daily basis. Prior to groundworks, preventive detection activities are often carried out by private companies to mitigate the risk associated with the potential of explosive remnants. The decision to implement mitigation measures is typically based on expert assessments of the associated risks. This study explores whether a quantitative risk assessment is feasible for certain activities and types of UXO. Using historical data from Explosive Ordnance Disposal Service, the probability of fatality by UXO, i.e. individual risk, has been calculated and compared with the general safety standard in the Netherlands. The outcome of this study is a probabilistic risk assessment based on statistical analysis. This risk assessment provides public administrators with insight into the individual risk in relation to national safety standards, as well as into the proportional or maximum reasonable expenditure for mitigating that risk. Based on these insights, public administrators can decide whether to implement preventive mitigation measures.