Adaptation in the informal city: Climate migration, livelihoods, and the governance of urban precarity in Bangladesh

Climate-induced migration to cities is increasingly framed as an adaptive response that demonstrates the resilience of vulnerable populations. Yet, for many migrants in the Global South, urban arrival does not eliminate vulnerability but reconfigures it through new forms of institutional and livelihood insecurity. This exploratory study examines how informal governance structures mediate livelihood adaptation following climate-induced displacement in two informal settlements in Dhaka: Korail and Kamrangirchar. Drawing on survey data from 415 households and qualitative interviews, the analysis conceptualizes informal governance as an intervening mechanism shaping access to assets, services, and protection. The findings show that while migration improves physical access to employment and health services, adaptive strategies are constrained by rent-seeking intermediaries, political patronage networks, and the persistent threat of eviction. These arrangements selectively enable survival while undermining long-term resilience, often reproducing gendered and class-based inequalities. The study proposes a governance-mediated livelihoods framework as an alternative to asset-based approaches that explain why adaptive migration frequently results in sustained urban precarity rather than secure integration. By recognizing exploratory scope (two sites, cross-sectional design), this paper contributes to broader debates on climate adaptation, urban informality, and development policy.