Deglobalization as a contextual shock: implications for talent retention effectiveness

This study explores how national institutional contexts (cognitive, normative, and regulatory) moderate the effectiveness of talent retention strategies in reducing turnover among multinational enterprise (MNE) subsidiaries, and how these relationships are further influenced by deglobalization. In an era marked by rising constraints on cross-border talent flows, understanding the institutional fit of retention strategies becomes essential for global talent management. Drawing on data from 1,264 MNE subsidiaries across 34 countries, we employ multilevel modeling to examine both two-way and three-way interactions between country institutions, deglobalization, organizational retention strategies and voluntary turnover. Our findings reveal that wellbeing-oriented strategies are most effective in countries with strong cognitive institutions and loose normative environments. Financial strategies are more effective in low-regulation settings and under conditions of tighter cultural norms. Enrichment strategies reduce turnover regardless of institutional context, suggesting broad cross-cultural applicability. Deglobalization strengthens the salience of several of these relationships: it strengthens the moderating role of normative institutions on wellbeing strategies and regulatory institutions on financial strategies. These results extend neo-institutional theory by integrating contextual amplification through deglobalization, highlighting the strategic value of institutional fit in global talent retention. Implications for theory, policy, and practice are discussed.