Analysing tourism destination model vulnerabilities through competitiveness frameworks: evidence from the Canary Islands

Tourism destinations today face growing pressures from global change, and the Canary Islands, as a paradigmatic insular case, offer critical insights into how competitiveness and vulnerability interact. This study examines the relationship between competitiveness and vulnerability in tourism destinations through a longitudinal analysis of the Canary Islands from 2010 to 2024. It introduces the concept of 'competitive vulnerability', understood as the coexistence of high tourism performance with underlying structural fragilities—economic, social or environmental—that threaten long-term sustainability. Using a mixed-method approach based on composite indices (Tourism Capacity, Tourism Performance, Economic Vulnerability and Local Well-being) and panel data analysis, the research proposes a bidimensional matrix that classifies destinations into four configurations: apparent success, dynamic balance, vulnerable stagnation and latent potential. The findings reveal that high-intensity destinations combine robust competitiveness indicators with increasing vulnerabilities, particularly in economic dependence and declining local well-being. By contrast, the low-intensity model exhibits greater resilience and sustainability. This study contributes a conceptual and methodological framework, integrating competitiveness and vulnerability metrics, offering a replicable tool for anticipating structural risks and informing adaptive strategies. The approach goes beyond traditional performance-based assessments, highlighting the need to consider systemic risks and resilience in long-term tourism destination management.