Forest ecological product value realization depends on ecological resource endowment, human demand, and value-conversion capacity. This study developed a dual-scale framework to assess supply–demand mismatch and value realization of forest ecological products in Guangdong Province, China, from 2012 to 2022. At the 1-km grid scale, ecological supply was represented by forest cover and forest NPP intensity, while human demand was characterized by impervious surface, summer land surface temperature, and nighttime lights. At the prefecture-level city scale, grid-based indicators were linked with forestry industry output value to evaluate realized economic value, relative value-realization efficiency, supply–realization mismatch, and city typology. OLS regression and random forest models were used to identify driving factors. Results showed that ecological supply was concentrated in mountainous areas of northern, eastern, and western Guangdong, whereas demand and value-conversion capacity were clustered in the Pearl River Delta and coastal urbanized areas. Impervious surface ratio, forest NPP intensity, GDP, and population were key predictors. These findings reveal the spatial decoupling between ecological resource spaces and value realization spaces and support differentiated forest ecological product governance.
Mao et al. (Tue,) studied this question.
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