The Relationship Between Human Activities and Ecosystem Service Supply–Demand From the Perspective of Land Use Transformation

The equilibrium between ecosystem service supply and demand relationships (ESSDR) is essential for regional sustainable development. Understanding the relationship between human activity intensity (HAI) and ESSDR from the perspective of land use transformation (LT) is important for ecological management and governance. Based on multisource data, this study investigated the interactive relationships among HAI, LT, and ESSDR in China. The results showed that HAI was highly concentrated in urban agglomerations such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, whereas LT exhibited clear spatial heterogeneity. A Spatial Durbin Model incorporating the interaction term between HAI and LT, referred to in this study as the Spatial Durbin Moderation Effect Model (SDMEM), indicated that LT moderated the relationship between HAI and ESSDR by amplifying the negative impact of HAI on ESSDR, with a significant interaction effect ( β = −0.938) and spatial spillover effect ( β = 0.497). The multifactor analysis indicated that population density was the main driver, and its importance showed scale dependence. A differentiated governance framework was established based on bivariate local spatial autocorrelation and spatial Markov chain methods, namely restoration in the east, conservation in the west, and stabilization in the center. This framework provides a scientific basis for national land governance and regional ecological management in similar regions and countries.