Which Capacity Fails First? National Evidence for a Three-Axis Model of Influence

This paper develops an empirical test of a three-axis theory of national influence. It operationalizes productive capacity, mobilizable surplus, and network position; specifies regime classifications before scored crossings; and evaluates the framework through historical transitions, a modern panel, and six prospective tests. Among eleven retrospectively selected transitions, seven completed cases strictly match the ordering implied by their pre-crossing classification, Britain and Tang China are joint-shock partials, Mughal India is an explicit violation, and Russia remains right-censored after its first predicted crossing. A four-case robustness extension adds two joint-shock partials and two ambiguous trajectories but no strict match. A PWT 11.0 G15 panel supplies a three-cluster point classification at the pre-specified threshold, although the strict bootstrap criterion is not met. A pre-specified cross-coupling map selects the provisional cardinal (0.640, 0.175, 0.185) from four candidates, with its interpretation conditional on the constructed axes, VAR(1), transferred contest parameters, and leakage normalization. The prospective registry fixes observables, horizons, triggers, and rejection levels for six future tests. The results support continued evaluation of the regime classifier while leaving axis completeness, causal identification, and the cardinal map open to held-out rejection. Series note. This version 1.0 working paper contains the national evidence separated from the prior omnibus manuscript. Stable series citations use concept DOIs: the axiomatic theory is at 10.5281/zenodo.20036716 and the firm-level portability study is at 10.5281/zenodo.21347880. The theory is also maintained as SSRN Working Paper 6716498 under DOI 10.2139/ssrn.6716498. The prior omnibus manuscript is retained for provenance at the immutable version DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20177453.