Climate migration hotspots in Khulna District: a GIS and AHP-based spatial modeling approach

Globally, climate-induced migration has become a critical issue, and Bangladesh is among the most vulnerable countries affected by this trend. This study applies the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to identify and prioritize the major drivers of climate migration in the Khulna District. It also integrates geographic information system (GIS) techniques to produce a migration hotspot map that highlights potential destinations for affected communities. Eight key determinants were evaluated: storm impacts, flood-prone areas, salinity intrusion, proximity to urban centers, riverbank location, access to drinking water, drainage conditions, elevation (highland), highway accessibility, and topographic wetness. Data was collected from multiple sources, including publicly available maps, USGS elevation datasets, and Sentinel-2 imagery. Pairwise comparison in AHP was used to calculate the weighted importance of each factor. Findings show that storm impacts carry the highest weight (0.2046), while topographic wetness has the lowest (0.0510). The final GIS-based hotspot map classifies migration likelihood into four zones: low, moderate, high, and extremely high. By demonstrating how AHP and GIS can effectively model migration pressures, this research provides valuable insights for planning and addressing climate-related migration challenges in vulnerable regions.