Integrating expert farmers’ knowledge and multi-criteria decision-making to improve water productivity in hyper-arid agricultural systems

Hyper-arid agricultural systems require adaptive strategies that integrate local experiential knowledge with robust analytical tools to improve water productivity and resilience. This study developed an integrated framework combining farmer expertise with Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) to evaluate agricultural sustainability in the Zabol watershed, Iran. Data were collected from 20 officially recognised exemplary farmers representing five agricultural product groups: horticultural crops, fisheries, greenhouse products, medicinal plants, and wheat/barley. The analysis combined the five-capitals sustainability framework with PROMETHEE II, Confirmatory Factor Analysis, and Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). Results showed that horticultural crops (Φ = 0.184) and fisheries (Φ = 0.156) achieved the highest overall performance because of strong physical and financial capital endowments, whereas wheat/barley ranked lowest (Φ = −0.173) due to infrastructural and financial constraints. SEM results indicated that physical capital significantly strengthened financial capacity (β = 0.51), while natural capital positively influenced overall sustainability performance (β = 0.43). Fisheries demonstrated the highest infrastructure capacity (water storage = 4.85/5), whereas greenhouse products exhibited comparatively strong social capital and institutional knowledge exchange. The findings underscore the importance of micro-irrigation investment, cooperative strengthening, vocational training, and locally grounded decision-support systems for improving agricultural resilience in water-scarce environments. The proposed framework offers a promising foundation for integrated water resource management in hyper-arid agricultural systems, although further validation across diverse dryland contexts is required.