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Abstract This study examines the predictive validity of the HCR‐20 in a sample of 42 female patients admitted to a Dutch forensic psychiatric hospital. The findings are compared with those for a matched sample of 42 male forensic psychiatric patients. The inter‐rater reliability of the HCR‐20 was good for both female and male patients. There were significant differences between female and male patients in mean HCR‐20 item scores, but the mean H, C and R‐subscale scores and total score were comparable. The base rate for inpatient violence was similar for female (30%) and male patients (29%), but the base rate for violent recidivism after discharge was significantly higher for the male sample (43%) compared with the female sample (13%). For male patients, the HCR‐20 demonstrated good to excellent predictive validity for violent outcome (violent recidivism and inpatient violence); however, predictive accuracy for female patients was much lower. In females, only the HCR‐20 final risk judgment, and not the HCR‐20 total score, demonstrated significant predictive validity for violent outcome. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Vogel et al. (Sun,) studied this question.