Progesterone-based ovulation timing versus LH surge monitoring in true natural cycle frozen embryo transfer: impact on live birth rates in a prospective cohort study

Turgut Aydin; Nadiye Koroglu; Edis Kahraman; Nazli Albayrak; Elif Kose

doi:10.1093/humrep/deag109

July 15, 2026Human Reproduction

Progesterone-based ovulation timing versus LH surge monitoring in true natural cycle frozen embryo transfer: impact on live birth rates in a prospective cohort study

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Key Points

This study examines whether progesterone-based timing for embryo transfer leads to live birth rates similar to those based on LH surge in true natural cycle frozen embryo transfer.
Prospective cohort study of 490 true NC-FET cycles from 2022 to 2025 at a single IVF center.
Cycles analyzed based on two timing strategies: progesterone-based (n=286) and LH surge-based (n=204).
Data collected included serial ultrasound and serum hormone measurements; live birth rates were analyzed using modified Poisson regression.
Live birth rates were 56.6% for progesterone-timed cycles and 52.0% for LH-timed cycles (unadjusted RR 1.09, 95% CI 0.93-1.28).
The adjusted RR for live birth showed no significant independent association with the timing strategy (1.09, 95% CI 0.93-1.30; P = 0.264).
Exploratory analyses indicated positive correlations between follicle size before ovulation and embryo transfer day progesterone levels.

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Implication

Prospective cohort study finds equivalent live birth rates using progesterone-based versus LH surge-based embryo transfer timing in true NC-FET, suggesting feasibility for clinical practice.

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Cite This Study

Aydin et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a59c60da58755010b47148a https://doi.org/10.1093/humrep/deag109

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Progesterone-based ovulation timing versus LH surge monitoring in true natural cycle frozen embryo transfer: impact on live birth rates in a prospective cohort study

Key Points

No abstract yet

Implication

Discussion

Cite This Study

Progesterone-based ovulation timing versus LH surge monitoring in true natural cycle frozen embryo transfer: impact on live birth rates in a prospective cohort study

Key Points

No abstract yet

Implication

Discussion

Cite This Study

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