Tracing the influence of Western Mediterranean innovations in Neolithic Europe through directly radiocarbon-dated naked wheat (Triticum aestivum/durum/turgidum)

The dispersal of crops offers a powerful lens through which to investigate prehistoric mobility, interaction, and adaptation. This study examines the spatiotemporal distribution of naked wheat across Europe during the Neolithic using a dataset of 116 directly dated naked wheat remains from 58 archaeological sites (ca. 6000–2400 cal BCE). Dates were calibrated and analysed through summed probability distributions, composite Kernel Density Estimation, spatial clustering, spatio-temporal density modelling, and generalized additive models to reconstruct chronological trends and dispersal dynamics. Results reveal a structured and directional trajectory rather than a uniform spread. The earliest occurrences cluster in southeastern Europe around 6000 cal BCE, followed by consolidation along Mediterranean regions and later expansion into central and northern Europe after ca. 4500–4000 cal BCE. Distance from the Mediterranean coast is the strongest predictor of naked wheat first appearance, which is consistent with an inland‑oriented dispersal gradient from Mediterranean regions. Regional trajectories differ markedly, suggesting the potential role of localized adoption histories shaped by environmental conditions and cultural choices. These findings indicate that the spread of naked wheat cannot be explained solely by demic movement. Instead, it reflects transmission through networks and agricultural practices that varied across regions. More broadly, the study highlights the value of directly dated cereal remains for reconstructing agricultural change independently of traditional cultural-historical frameworks, providing a higher-resolution perspective on Neolithic socio-ecological dynamics across Europe.