Moving Towards Transilience: Rethinking the Role of Flood Early Warning Systems in a Changing World

Flood early warning systems (FEWS) are established globally to support communities in building resilience to flooding and in preparing for and responding to disasters. However, amid climatic and technological change, it is unclear how FEWS might evolve to remain effective. We review resilience as the capacity to “bounce back” and introduce transilience as the capacity to “bounce forward” in the context of disaster risk reduction. We argue that FEWS can help flood-vulnerable communities innovate and find new opportunities to transform their flood risk management for the better (that is, transilience). Technological evolution, advancing flood monitoring and forecasting, creates opportunities for communities to improve the entire flood early warning value chain. We use case studies to show how communities have leveraged technology to address changing flood impacts and reduce vulnerabilities that often precipitate or exacerbate flood disasters. We also review how global multi-hazard early warning initiatives and priorities increasingly reflect transilience. This perspective contributes to conversations about the importance of making communities central to FEWS design and using technology to better understand and meet community needs in disaster risk management.