Ambition versus costs: examining the effects of the European Green Deal on Kenya’s horticulture export from the stakeholders’ perspective

The European Union’s Green Deal (EGD), especially its Farm to Fork (F2F) and Biodiversity strategies, is reshaping global agri-food trade. The two strategies aim to transform food systems and promote environmental sustainability. The European Union (EU) is Kenya’s largest horticulture market; hence, these new sustainability standards affect exports. This study examines how exporters, government agencies, industry associations, and international organisations perceive the effects of the EGD on Kenya’s horticultural exports. Using a concurrent mixed-methods approach, 105 horticultural exporting firms and 12 key stakeholders were interviewed. The findings indicated that EGD promotes safer food and environmental sustainability. However, its implementation has led to changes in export regulations and requirements, higher production and export costs, and a decline in volumes produced and exported. It also led to the loss of markets, jobs, incomes, and revenues, as well as increased red tape and bureaucracy. The paper argues for context-sensitive adaptation, enhanced capacity building, and inclusive policy dialogue to ensure sustainable and equitable trade relations.