The relationship between zoning-based urban expansion and vehicle energy consumption: The spatial outcome of green area vs. commercial–industrial–residential area expansion

This study empirically investigates how zoning-based urban expansion affects household vehicle energy consumption using a panel hierarchical linear model. We utilize 11,117 household-year observations from the Household Energy Panel Survey (2018–2022) and examine two zoning types: commercial–industrial–residential (CIR) and green areas. Each zoning type is decomposed into three expansion pathways: incorporation of non-urban area, zoning conversion between existing zoned areas, and zoning designation of “undesignated areas.” Green area expansion markedly reduces vehicle energy consumption with an effect magnitude 14.8 times greater than CIR area expansion. This substantial difference underscores the importance of strategic green space planning with density-based management. Pathway-specific analysis demonstrates that non-urban area incorporation into CIR area and undesignated area designation as CIR area significantly elevate consumption, while non-urban area incorporation into green area yields substantial reductions. Moderation analysis reveals that the impact of zoning remain consistent across income strata, while it varies significantly with housing type, with apartment residents consuming a greater amount of fuel under CIR development on previously non-urban areas. These findings provide empirical foundations for pathway-differentiated, green area-integrated strategies for transport energy-efficient urban planning, carrying special relevance for rapidly urbanizing countries in the Global South where zoning-based development control remains dominant.