Distinct roles of direct and indirect electrification in pathways to a renewables-dominated European energy system

Renewable electricity can facilitate climate change mitigation in the buildings, industry and transport sector via direct electrification or indirect electrification, that is, converting electricity to hydrogen-based fuels. While direct electrification is generally energy efficient, indirect electrification can partially build upon existing applications and infrastructure. However, their roles and relative importance have not been well researched in mitigation scenarios. Here, we derive plausible ranges for both strategies based on EU climate neutrality scenarios using the REMIND model. We find that by 2050 direct electrification is the dominant strategy with an electricity share of 42%–60% in final energy, while indirect electrification is necessary in hard-to-electrify sectors and contributes a share of 9%–26%. Our analysis highlights that policy makers should respect the distinct sectoral roles of both strategies by fostering an end-use transformation towards direct electrification while prioritizing hydrogen and synthetic fuels for applications where they are indispensable.