Assessing the steppe vulnerability to extreme climate events in the Inner Mongolia

• The vulnerability assessment model was constructed by Expose-Sensitivity-Resilience. • A 17-year moving window method was used to analyze the time characteristics of vulnerability elements. • The trend changes in exposure and sensitivity play a dominant role in the trend changes of vulnerability. • High temperature events have a significant negative impact on Steppe VI. Global warming has intensified extreme weather events, leading to significant changes in vegetation dynamics and highlighting the urgent need for a systematic assessment of ecosystem vulnerability. As a typical ecologically fragile region in northern China, the Inner Mongolian grasslands represent a critical area for such research. To assess the vulnerability of vegetation ecosystems in Inner Mongolia to climate change, we conducted a comprehensive evaluation by integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience in parallel. We computed 17 extreme climate indices for the Inner Mongolia. We applied Theil-Sen trend analysis, the Mann-Kendall test, and geographic detector models to characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving factors of grassland vulnerability to extreme climate events in Inner Mongolia. The results indicated that from 1982 to 2018, extreme climatic events in Inner Mongolia exhibited a decline in precipitation coupled with an increase in temperature, while Gross Primary Production (GPP) demonstrated a statistically insignificant increased trend (0.003 gC·m −2 ·a −1 ).Spatially, extreme precipitation events exhibited an increased trend in the western regions and a decreased trend in the eastern regions, while a general intensification of high-temperature events was observed across Inner Mongolia. The spatial distribution of GPP changes reveals an increase in the southern regions and a decrease in the northern regions. Exposure and sensitivity are the dominant factors driving vulnerability changes in the grassland ecosystems of Inner Mongolia, with extreme heat events playing a critical role in exacerbating vulnerability, particularly in desert steppes.