A Proactive Predictive Model for Machine Failure Forecasting

Unexpected machine failures in industrial environments lead to high maintenance costs, unplanned downtime, and safety risks. This study proposes a proactive predictive model using a hybrid of eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Neural Networks (NN) to forecast machine failures. A synthetic dataset capturing recent breakdown history and time since last failure was used to simulate industrial scenarios. To address class imbalance, SMOTE and class weighting were applied, alongside a focal loss function to emphasize difficult-to-classify failures. The XGBoost model was tuned via GridSearchCV, while the NN model utilized ReLU-activated hidden layers with dropout. Evaluation using stratified 5-fold cross-validation showed that the NN achieved an F1-score of 0.7199 and a recall of 0.9545 for the minority class. XGBoost attained a higher PR AUC of 0.7126 and a more balanced precision–recall trade-off. Sample predictions demonstrated strong recall (100%) for failures, but also a high false positive rate, with most prediction probabilities clustered between 0.50–0.55. Additional benchmarking against Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and SVM further confirmed the superiority of the proposed hybrid model. Model interpretability was enhanced using SHAP and LIME, confirming that recent breakdowns and time since last failure were key predictors. While the model effectively detects failures, further improvements in feature engineering and threshold tuning are recommended to reduce false alarms and boost decision confidence.