The impact of bioplastics production on climate change mitigation, fossil fuels and land-use

As plastics production remains heavily fossil-dependent, plastics produced from biomass feedstocks could be a climate-friendly alternative. However, extensive biomass production is linked to reduced carbon sinks, thus posing an opposing challenge. This study analyses large-scale bioplastics production and its impacts on the energy system and land-use using an Integrated Assessment Model, and quantifies its climate change mitigation potential alongside other system-level impacts. The results indicate that a shift from fossil-based plastics to bioplastics can mitigate climate change cost-efficiently, particularly if techno-economic advancements and the utilization of biomass from residues can be realized. The total use of fossil resources is decreased with the emergence of bioplastics; but total biomass use remains on a similar level than in the scenarios without bioplastics, as the energy use of biomass declines as a response to the increasing bioplastics production. By 2100, bioplastics production is projected to account for roughly a third of total plastics production, with PLA constituting the majority; while drop-in bioplastics have a minor role in overall production. • Non-energy use of fossil fuels is expected to become a major future emission source. • Bioplastics can offer cost-effective climate change mitigation. • Source and type of biomass used in bioplastics is central to mitigation effectiveness. • Land-use and terrestrial carbon flux are central in mitigation effectiveness. • Bioplastics production reduces the demand of fossil-based commodities.