Beyond Occam’s Razor: Double Descent and the Potential Paradigm Shift Toward Over-Parameterized Personalization in Higher Education

This paper examines how the emergence of over-parameterized artificial intelligence models and the phenomenon of double descent challenge the classical assumption that simpler models generalize better. Traditional predictive analytics relied on parsimonious models grounded in the bias-variance trade-off, where increasing complexity was expected to produce overfitting. However, recent advances in deep learning demonstrate that highly over-parameterized models can achieve superior generalization after surpassing the interpolation threshold. This paradigm shift has enabled systems such as AlphaFold, Aurora, Delphi-2M, and recommenders to model complex, high-dimensional relationships through contextual attention rather than global feature selection. The paper argues that higher education analytics remains largely reductionist, relying on limited variables such as GPA, demographics, and course completion rates to identify “at-risk” students. While interpretable, these approaches often fail to capture the dynamic and multidimensional nature of student success. In response, this study proposes a transition toward over-parameterized personalization, where students’ academic and behavioral histories are modeled as longitudinal high-dimensional sequences. Drawing parallels to commercial recommendation systems such as Amazon, Netflix, and YouTube, the paper explores how higher education can move from generalized early-warning systems toward adaptive “n-of-1” interventions. Importantly, the paper is conceptual rather than empirical: it develops a research agenda and a set of testable propositions, and it identifies the evaluation designs—temporally valid prediction protocols and causal intervention studies—by which the promise of over-parameterized personalization in higher education should be assessed before any claim of superiority can be made.