Changes in obese metabolic phenotypes over time and risk of incident chronic kidney disease

AIM: To examine the association between metabolically healthy obese (MHO) phenotype and incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) and study whether changes in metabolic phenotypes over time could affect CKD risk. METHODS: . Multivariable Cox analysis and time-varying Cox analysis were performed to delineate the relationship between obese metabolic phenotypes and incident CKD after adjustment for sociodemographic factors and clinical and laboratory parameters. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up duration of 9.3 years, CKD occurred in 782 (9.1%) participants. In the multivariable Cox model, the hazard ratio (HR) for incident CKD in the MHO, metabolically abnormal non-obese (MANO), and metabolically abnormal obese (MAO) groups was 1.42 (P = 0.002), 1.45 (P < 0.001), and 1.77 (P < 0.001), respectively, compared with the metabolically healthy non-obese (MHNO) group. Time-varying analysis with these four phenotypes as time-varying exposures showed the same results. Furthermore, subjects with persistent MHO through follow-up were at a 2.0-fold increased risk of CKD (P < 0.001). 41.0% of subjects experienced phenotype changes during follow-up. Over the long term, the MHO group had a higher proportion of transition to the MA phenotype and unfavourable metabolic profiles than the MHNO group. Among MHO subjects, those who transitioned to MAO were at a 4.1-fold increased risk of incident CKD than those who regressed to MHNO. In addition, transition to MHO from other groups carried a higher risk of CKD than persistent MHNO. CONCLUSION: MHO subjects are at increased risk for incident CKD.