Does RTA network centrality promote the formation of global RTAs? an empirical analysis based on the social network perspective

This paper studies how RTA network centrality shapes global RTA formation, using trade and RTA data from 183 countries spanning the years 1962 to 2020. Empirical results show that RTA network centrality significantly affects global RTA formation. Mechanistic analysis reveals RTA network centrality primarily influences global RTA formation through information symmetry. Results remain robust across alternative methods and fixed effects. Predictive analysis shows RTA network centrality improves forecasting accuracy by 5 percentage points, especially among ‘Belt and Road’ countries. This underscores the significant role of RTA network centrality in RTA formation, providing policy insights for countries seeking suitable partner nations.