Co-creating the European Transition Pathway for Tourism: a transition management approach through participatory backcasting

Sustainability transitions in tourism require systemic changes, yet the methods to facilitate such changes are underexplored. This study examines the co-creation of the European Transition Pathway for Tourism for 2030 led by the European Commission. It applies a transition management framework operationalised through participatory backcasting. The study draws on materials produced, including consultation submissions, workshop outputs, official reports, and voluntary commitments. It traces how strategic and tactical activities shaped shared priorities and interim milestones. It then examines how these outputs were translated into operational mobilisation and early monitoring. The analysis identifies five cross-cutting challenges shaping both co-creation and early implementation: procedural capacity and accessibility; power and resource asymmetries; knowledge infrastructures and responsibility allocation; diffusion and uptake constraints; and territorial–institutional heterogeneity. Using the lenses of authority, legitimacy, and accountability, the study shows that the European Commission steered primarily through orchestration, agenda-setting, and the alignment of financial instruments, rather than sectoral regulation. This included directing more than €17 billion over three years towards measures aligned with Pathway priorities. The paper contributes methodologically by specifying how participatory backcasting can be adapted to fast-moving policy processes. It contributes theoretically by advancing understanding of transition management when authority is dispersed and accountability remains largely voluntary.