Climate change and poverty dynamics in Tanzania: geospatial analysis of the interaction between infrastructure, climate impact, and regional disparities

Abstract This study examines the interplay between climate change, infrastructure, and poverty dynamics in Tanzania using spatial econometric models—Spatial Autoregressive (SAR), Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), and Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). Analyzing longitudinal data from 2002 to 2022 across six geographic zones, the findings highlight the role of education in income growth, where a 1% increase in school enrollment is linked to a 10. 23 rise in income. However, climate variability significantly threatens economic stability, particularly in agriculture-dependent regions such as Mwanza and Kigoma, where a 1°C temperature increase results in an average income decline of 2. 30. Satellite-derived vegetation indices, including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Solar-Induced Fluorescence (SIF), reveal that low values correspond to severe crop losses, exacerbating poverty and food insecurity. The study underscores the urgency of targeted interventions to enhance climate-resilient infrastructure and equitable access to quality education. Policy recommendations focus on region-specific strategies integrating sustainable agricultural practices, advanced geospatial intelligence, and equitable resource allocation. Additionally, findings reveal urban-rural disparities in policy implementation, necessitating localized adaptation mechanisms. This research provides a data-driven framework for aligning Tanzania’s development policies with global sustainability frameworks, particularly the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Future studies should incorporate qualitative assessments from policymakers and affected communities to validate geospatial findings and refine intervention strategies. By leveraging evidence-based policymaking, this study contributes to a more resilient and inclusive economic future for Tanzania.