Pathways to water conflict transformation: Comparing North Crimea Canal and Kabul River Basin

This study explores pathways to transformation through a focus on water relations among states, examining the intersection of water resources management, political conflicts, and historical grievances: (1) Ukraine and Russia regarding North Crimea Canal; and (2) Afghanistan and Pakistan in Kabul River Basin. Using these cases to support water conflict prevention, this study explores water interactions (disputes, arrangements, and agreements) from the time of respective sovereign statehoods: Afghanistan (1919), Pakistan (1947), and Ukraine and Russia (1991) through to 2022. The design of this study incorporates the Transboundary Waters Interaction Nexus (TWINs) framework to assess past water interactions; with the Four Stages of Water Conflict Transformation framework, used to assess 2022 state-level relations to determine collaborative skills to cultivate water transformation. Findings indicate that while UkraineRussia water relations are adversarial, and Afghanistan-Pakistan are in the reflective negotiation stage—territorial disputes and political economic dynamics hamper cooperation, though points of leverage (such as neutral third-party mediation, shared environmental and economic interests, and water diplomacy and legal frameworks) exist. This research provides value through broadening preventative and transformative strategies in politically sensitive and geopolitically unstable regions—showing that water can be a catalyst for equity and regional securitization.