Scenario-based modeling for exploring urban cooling pathways: a targeted, health-relevant approach toward just resilience

Mesoscale modeling applications assessing urban-heat-reducing strategies, such as cool roofs, usually assume uniform implementation. While informative at the city scale, this approach offers limited insight into practical deployment and usually does not account for either local needs or existing disparities. In contrast, evaluating spatially and socioeconomically focused interventions within mesoscale modeling frameworks can provide more tangible and just pathways to urban cooling. In this context, the current study employed the Weather Research and Forecasting model with explicit urban canopy representation at 400 m spatial resolution to simulate three cool-roof scenarios (white/cool-colored paint, reflective coating, super-cool material) targeting heat-stress relief and health-relevant implications in the vulnerable western suburbs of the Athens Urban Area (AUA), Greece. Simulations were conducted for a nine-day extreme heat wave (28 July–5 August 2021), influenced by varying wind circulations (Etesians and sea breeze), which informed the spatial configuration of the cooling measures. Specifically, the intervention area was positioned within a strategically located industrial zone to facilitate sea-breeze-driven cooling toward the heat-sensitive western AUA. The targeted cool-roof scenarios produced clear atmospheric cooling, with mean daytime near-surface air-temperature reductions in the broader influence zone (West Athens, Central Athens, Piraeus) reaching 0.54 °C under Etesians and 0.73 °C during sea-breeze conditions. Through integration of thermophysiologically grounded epidemiological evidence and demographic data, these physical cooling effects were linked to population-wide heat-stress responses and associated health-beneficial implications, affecting 2.5%–20% of West Athens for all considered populations (male and female adults and seniors) and cool-roof strategies when sea breeze prevails. In total, the benefited population comprised 134 661 (white/cool-colored paint) to 197 787 (super-cool material) people, with heat-vulnerable female seniors exhibiting larger numbers than their male counterparts. These outcomes demonstrate how a targeted, health-relevant modeling framework can generate meaningful, needs-based insights to advance just resilience in urban environments.