Spatial patterns and evolution trend of coupling coordination of pollution reduction and carbon reduction along the Yellow River Basin, China

Collaborative efforts to reduce pollution and carbon emissions are a notable feature of the current era. Achieving the “pollution reduction” and “carbon reduction” dual-driven new development model is the inevitable requirement and significant practical measure for building a new development pattern and realizing a comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development. The synergistic effects between pollution reduction and carbon reduction (PRCR) have been demonstrated. However, the measurement and quantitative analysis of the coupling coordination degree (CCD) of PRCR have not received enough attention. Therefore, the evaluation index system was constructed based on the scientific connotation of PRCR, and the CCD of PRCR in cities along the Yellow River Basin (YRB) from 2009 to 2018 was measured quantitatively by constructing the coupling coordination model in this paper. In addition, we comprehensively investigated its spatial pattern, distribution characteristics, and evolution trend using ESDA, Kernel density estimation, and Markov chain. The primary findings can be summarized as: (1) PRCR levels and their CCD fluctuated and increased in the YRB, with “east-high and west-low” spatial differentiation characteristics, and the coupling phenomenon of “pollution reduction is hindered and carbon reduction is lagging”. (2) There is a phenomenon of “spatial club” clustering in the coordination degree of PRCR in the YRB, with most cities in the downstream areas belonging to the type of high-high clustering, while the middle and upstream areas had the opposite type. (3) The CCD of PRCR in the whole and upper reaches of the YRB have transformed from low-level divergence to high-level convergence. (4) Spatial geographic factors have a significant spillover effect on the evolution of the CCD of PRCR, and there is a phenomenon of the “Matthew effect”. This paper provides a comprehensive framework for analyzing the synergistic effects between PRCR, and the research findings can also provide insights for other regions.