Key result
The updated model estimates that middle-income countries account for most current long-term iVDPV excreters, confirming that iVDPVs pose significant risks requiring management after global OPV cessation.
Why the study?
Conditions and evidence continue to evolve regarding the prevalence of iVDPV excreters, and inconsistencies among multiple recent reviews raise challenges for forecasting risks and evaluating risk management options.
Updated modelling confirms the importance of managing risks associated with iVDPV excreters despite highly uncertain prevalence estimates.
Evidence on iVDPV excreters evolves amid review inconsistencies; leaves open refined prevalence forecasts for risk management.
Conditions and evidence continue to evolve related to the prediction of the prevalence of immunodeficiency-associated long-term vaccine-derived poliovirus (iVDPV) excreters, which affect assumptions related to forecasting risks and evaluating potential risk management options. Multiple recent reviews provided information about individual iVDPV excreters, but inconsistencies among the reviews raise some challenges. This analysis revisits the available evidence related to iVDPV excreters and provides updated model estimates that can support future risk management decisions. The results suggest that the prevalence of iVDPV excreters remains highly uncertain and variable, but generally confirms the importance of managing the risks associated with iVDPV excreters throughout the polio endgame in the context of successful cessation of all oral poliovirus vaccine use.
No takes yet. Share an insight, caveat, or question.
Kalkowska et al. (2019) studied Primary immunodeficiency diseases (PIDs) and iVDPV excretion (n=143). Oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) exposure was evaluated on Prevalence of long-term iVDPV excreters. The updated model estimates that middle-income countries account for most current long-term iVDPV excreters, confirming that iVDPVs pose significant risks requiring management after global OPV cessation.
Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context:
More from Epidemiology and Infection