Key result
Early pregnancy clinical and biomarker model predicts hypertensive disease in pregnancy with AUC ~0.80.
Why the study?
To construct and validate an HDP prediction model using early pregnancy demographic characteristics, blood routine, and biochemical screening indicators to reduce the incidence of HDP.
Can a prediction model using early pregnancy demographic and biochemical markers effectively predict the occurrence of hypertensive disease in pregnancy?
Case-Control (n=16,112)
No
Can a prediction model using early pregnancy demographic and biochemical markers effectively predict the occurrence of hypertensive disease in pregnancy?
A prediction model incorporating early pregnancy age, BMI, medical history, and routine blood/biochemical markers can effectively predict the risk of hypertensive disease in pregnancy.
May aid early risk stratification in pregnancy; leaves open whether implementation improves outcomes in prospective trials.
The HDP prediction model was constructed and validated by using the demographic characteristics, blood routine and biochemical screening indicators in early pregnancy to reduce the incidence of HDP. 16,112 pregnant women admitted to Yuyao People’s Hospital from May 1, 2018 to April 30, 2022 were randomly divided into modeling group ( n = 11279) and validation group ( n = 4833) according to a ratio of 7:3. Demographic characteristics, blood routine and biochemical screening data of 8–12 + 6 weeks gestation were obtained from Ningbo Health Records system. Univariate analysis and multivariate binary Logistic regression analysis were used to determine the independent risk factors of HDP, and the scoring system was established by using the nomogram. Univariate analysis and multivariate binary Logistic regression analysis showed that Age, BMI, previous medical history, HB, TG, HDL and ALB were independent risk factors for HDP ( P < 0.001). In the modeling group, AUC = 0.809, sensitivity = 74.30%, specificity = 73.10%, and in the validation group, AUC = 0.801, sensitivity = 77.60%, specificity = 68.90%. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test showed that modeling group: P = 0.195 > 0.05, validation group: P = 0.775 > 0.05. The prediction model of early pregnancy Age, BMI, previous medical history, HB, TG, HDL and ALB can effectively predict the occurrence of HDP.
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Chen et al. (2025) conducted a case-control in Hypertensive disease in pregnancy (HDP) (n=16,112). Early pregnancy clinical and biochemical prediction model was evaluated on Prediction of HDP occurrence (Validation group AUC) (AUC 0.801, p=<0.05). A prediction model incorporating early pregnancy age, BMI, previous medical history, hemoglobin, triglycerides, HDL, and albumin effectively predicted hypertensive disease in pregnancy with an AUC of 0.801 in the validation group.
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