VIIRS nighttime thermal anomalies reveal conflict-related events on Black Sea offshore structures and on Snake Island: Ukraine’s war at sea

Control of the Black Sea is of critical importance to both Ukraine and Russia, with offshore structures and Snake Island (Zmiinyi Island) playing strategic roles. We demonstrate how nighttime thermal data from the VIIRS satellite constellation can be used to identify and monitor conflict-related events at these sites. Using the VIIRS Nightfire data product, we show that it is possible to pinpoint the exact timing of attacks on offshore structures and to assess associated damage through the duration and affected area of related fire events. Fire types are differentiated by measured temperature, allowing identification of uncontrolled gas fires versus conventional fires. Results are independently validated using Sentinel-2 true-colour and short-wave infrared image composites, including estimation of areas damaged by fire, as well as reports from news sources. Our findings demonstrate that VIIRS nighttime thermal data provide a reliable, low-latency, and independent means of monitoring maritime conflict activities in the Western Black Sea.