Anti-environmental political agendas, firearm deregulation and illegal hunting in Brazil

Political ideologies and governance decisions can profoundly influence conservation outcomes in tropical countries, where biodiversity intersects with rapid socio-political change. Brazil—the world's largest tropical country—provides a key case to examine how political agendas and regulatory shifts shape wildlife exploitation across governance frontiers. Using 2046 illegal sport hunting records shared on social media during Jair Bolsonaro's 2019–2022 presidency, we applied a hierarchical zero-inflated binomial model to analyse the municipal-level probability of illegal hunting as a function of ecological, accessibility, socio-economic, and political factors. Political variables included electoral support for Bolsonaro as a proxy for alignment with anti-environmental agendas and civilian gun ownership rates reflecting firearm regulatory changes during his administration. Illegal hunting probability was higher in municipalities with greater human population density, higher defaunation levels, more remaining natural habitat, higher GDP per capita, stronger anti-environmental political alignment, and higher gun ownership rates. Standardized coefficients showed that political alignment and gun ownership had effect magnitudes comparable to ecological and accessibility factors. Spatial predictions revealed illegal hunting hotspots within and around the Arc of Deforestation in southern and eastern Amazonia. Our results suggest illegal hunting reflects the convergence of ecological and socio-economic conditions and permissive political contexts. In Amazonia, increased hunting pressure may intensify competition over wildlife resources and undermine the food security of Indigenous peoples and local communities. Brazil's experience illustrates how political narratives and weapon proliferation may restructure wildlife exploitation patterns, highlighting the need for politically insulated environmental enforcement, firearm regulation, and governance resilient to ideological shifts.