Switching lanes? South Korea’s shifting hedging behavior in the U.S.–China rivalry

Situated at the intersection of great power competition, South Korea faces a unique dilemma. It depends on the United States for security, relies on China for its economy, and must cooperate with two competing powers to address the challenges posed by provocative North Korea. It is within this context that South Korea’s hedging strategy has taken shape, as a means of managing competing pressures and safeguarding its national interests. Is South Korea’s hedging strategy a response to structural pressures from the U.S.–China competition or a result of political pendulum swings with each administration? This paper challenges the conventional view that hedging is merely an automatic response to great power competition, arguing that South Korea’s strategy has instead oscillated with shifts in political leadership. Through key developments, including the deployment of THAAD, the articulation of the Three Nos policy, and participation in the United States–South Korea–Japan trilateral coalition, this paper examines the country’s shifting hedging strategy.