Armed conflict, cattle expansion, and women’s production decision-making in Colombia (2001–2012)

Literature has extensively examined the impact of armed conflict on agriculture, largely emphasizing its negative effects on rural economies and household decision-making. However, fewer studies explore how conflict reshapes agricultural production systems and intra-household decision-making from a gender perspective. This study analyzes the relationship between armed conflict, cattle expansion, and women’s production decision-making in Colombia during one of the most intense phases of the internal conflict (2001–2012), a period marked by widespread violence, forced displacement, and agricultural frontier expansion. Using a dynamic panel data model (Arellano–Bond), we estimate the effects of armed conflict on cattle expansion at the municipal level. In addition, discrete choice and logistic regression models examine gender-differentiated patterns of production decision-making within Agricultural Production Units. Results indicate that higher levels of violence are associated with increased cattle production and a greater likelihood of women’s participation in production decisions. These patterns reflect conflict-induced disruptions to household structures and labor allocation, particularly in rural areas where men were disproportionately affected by lethal violence, forced recruitment, and displacement. Increased female involvement should not be interpreted as evidence of changes in formal ownership, which are not captured by the data. Instead, the findings point to adaptive shifts in gender roles within agricultural systems, including traditionally male-dominated cattle production.