Assessing the risk of climate change to aquaculture: a case study from south-east Australia

A qualitative screening-level risk assessment was developed to evaluate relative levelsof risk from climate change to aquaculture industries. The assessment was applied to 7 majorindustries in the temperate south-east region of Australia and involved a simple, transparent andrepeatable methodology that was appropriate for a range of different aquaculture systems andtaxa. Two key stages were involved: the development of comprehensive expertise-based literaturereviews or species profiles and a scoring assessment, with the latter providing a definedframework within which industries could be ranked (from high to low risk). In addition to informingthe second stage of the risk assessment process, the species profiles also highlighted importantclimate change drivers and key information uncertainties and knowledge gaps. There wasgood resolution among the scoring assessments, with only 2 industries receiving the same riskscore. The results indicated that oysters farmed from wild spat (Sydney rock oysters Saccostreaglomerata) were at most risk to climate change, with warm temperate hatchery-based finfish species(yellowtail kingfish Seriola lalandi) being the least at risk. This study provides critical guidancefor scientists, resource managers and stakeholders for future research, both in addressingkey knowledge gaps and focussing the development of more detailed risk analyses for high riskaquaculture industries in south-east Australia.