A re‐examination of the expected effects of disturbance on diversity

Disturbance is often cited as one of the main factors determining patterns of species diversity. Several models have predicted qualitatively that species richness should be highest at intermediate intensities and/or frequencies of disturbances, but none indicate whether this effect should be strong (statistically accounting for much variability in diversity) or only subtle. Empirical evidence on the point is very mixed. This study examines Markov models of the dynamics of six real communities. We derive the predicted changes in species richness and evenness when these communities are subjected to quantified disturbance frequency and intensity gradients. We also use several different sampling intensities (i.e. numbers of individuals counted) to determine how this affects richness‐disturbance relationships. Our models predict that peaked responses of diversity to disturbance should be less common than monotonic ones. Species richness should vary, on average, by only 3% over gradients of no disturbance to complete disturbance. In the most extreme case, richness varied two‐fold over this gradient. Moreover, richness may increase monotonically, decrease monotonically, or be a peaked function of disturbance, interacting in a non‐intuitive fashion with both the sampling intensity and the community in question. These results are broadly consistent with a review of published richness‐disturbance relationships. Evenness varies somewhat more strongly along disturbance gradients, but the effect is still small. We conclude that extant models provide little reason to believe that disturbance should play more than a subtle role in determining patterns of diversity in nature, contrary to most contemporary literature.