Enabling geoarbitrage: how digital nomad visas amplify cost-seeking behavior

This study examines global mobility patterns of digital nomads and the policy effectiveness of digital nomad visas. Using large-scale data from Reddit’s digital nomad community processed through large language models, we construct a geotagged bilateral flow dataset spanning 2014–2024 integrated with country-level cultural, administrative, geographic, and economic indicators. Gravity model analysis reveals that cost advantage through geoarbitrage dominates destination choice. Critically, digital nomad visa policies exhibit no universal attraction effects but operate through selective amplification mechanisms, significantly enhancing destinations’ responsiveness to cost advantages through reduced legal uncertainty and government signaling. This amplification effect persists over time and proves robust across specifications. However, visa policies temporarily amplify passport privilege before information diffusion equalizes access. The pandemic created a structural break, with remote work normalization fundamentally expanding the digital nomad pool. These findings establish that visa policies reshape mobility patterns by selectively magnifying economic arbitrage behavior rather than creating universal destination appeal.