Assessing electricity network capacity requirements for industrial decarbonisation in Great Britain

Decarbonising the industrial sector is vital to reach net zero targets. The deployment of industrial decarbonisation technologies is expected to increase industrial electricity demand in many countries and this may require upgrades to the existing electricity network or new network investment. While the infrastructure requirements to support the introduction of new fuels and technologies in industry, such as hydrogen and carbon capture, utilisation and storage are often discussed, the need for investment to increase the capacity of the electricity network to meet increasing industrial electricity demands is often overlooked in the literature. This paper addresses this gap by quantifying the requirements for additional electricity network capacity to support the decarbonisation of industrial sectors across Great Britain (GB). The Net Zero Industrial Pathways model is used to predict the future electricity demand from industrial sites to 2050 which is then compared spatially to the available headroom across the distribution network in GB. The results show that network headroom is sufficient to meet extra capacity demands from industrial sites over the period to 2030 in nearly all GB regions and network scenarios. However, as electricity demand rises due to increased electrification across all sectors and industrial decarbonisation accelerates towards 2050, the network will need significant new capacity (71 GW + by 2050) particularly in the central, south, and north-west regions of England, and Wales. Without solving these network constraints, around 65% of industrial sites that are large point sources of emissions would be constrained in terms of electric capacity by 2040. These sites are responsible for 69% of industrial point source emissions. • Electrification could help to decarbonise manufacturing industry in Great Britain. • Up to 2030, there is sufficient headroom to meet the increased demand for electricity. • Later on, a lack of headroom could progressively constrain industrial electrification. • Around 65% of large industrial sites could be constrained by 2050. • Government needs to change regulations to encourage faster network investment.