Mathematical modeling of crime as a social epidemic

This paper presents a new mathematical model of crime that incorporates certain important relationships and behavioral changes of the individuals under consideration. The main model assumption is that crime can be considered as a social epidemic process. The threshold parameter ℛ0 for the extinction of criminality is computed using the method of the next generation matrix, which allows for insights about what are the best policies to control crime. The analysis shows that when the threshold parameter ℛ0 is less than unity, criminality disappears, while the reverse results in persistence of criminality in the society. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate and understand the importance of specific model parameters in decreasing criminality.