The Relative Importance of Factors Influencing Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensity Changes

Predicting rapid intensity changes in tropical cyclones (TCs) is a major challenge due to the influence of multiple competing processes within the vortex and in the TC environment. We present an empirical framework that quantifies the relative importance of the various factors that influence critical transitions in TC intensities. Our analysis of model simulations of recent TCs over the Bay of Bengal identifies the following variables within the vortex as the biggest influence on TC rapid intensity changes: the amplitudes of wave number 1 of the precipitation in the rainband region and the 700‐to 850‐mb horizontal moisture flux convergence and the amplitude of wave number 0 of precipitation within the radius of maximum winds. Likewise, the most important environmental variables identified are the angle between the driest air and the shear vector and the magnitude of vertical wind shear. These findings provide guidance on guidance for future observational efforts and data assimilation into TC forecasting models.