Mapping the Fire–Ecosystem–People Nexus in a Southern African Mosaic: Explainable Fire-Regime Typologies and Stewardship Zones for Eswatini, 2001–2025

Burned-area totals are useful for national monitoring, but they do not reveal how, when or under what social and ecological conditions a landscape burns. We developed an event-based fire-regime and stewardship framework for Eswatini, a topographically compressed southern African country where protected areas, communal rangelands, cropland margins, plantation landscapes and peri-urban interfaces occur in close proximity. Global Fire Atlas event histories for 2001–2025 were organised by fire year and intersected with approximately 10 km2 hexagonal units. The burned-area rate, event frequency, recurrence, seasonality, large-fire dominance, pyrodiversity and trend were used to classify fire-regime types independently of socio-ecological predictors. An XGBoost regression model, evaluated on a 20% held-out test set, was interpreted using exact TreeSHAP diagnostics. Fire activity was strongly seasonal: July–September accounted for 78.2% of the burned area, with August alone accounting for 34.2%. Eight fire-regime types were identified, ranging from low-information and episodic units to frequent small-fire mosaics, large-fire-dominated areas and emerging burned-area intensification regimes. The burned-area-rate model performed well on held-out data (R2 = 0.71; Spearman rho = 0.75). Human modification, goat density, elevation, forest probability, fuelwood dependence and precipitation seasonality ranked among the most influential predictors, but their fitted effects were non-linear and often bidirectional. The combined diagnostics supported six adaptive management zones covering protected-area stewardship, conservation-sensitive management, settlement–livelihood interfaces, late-season risk reduction, monitoring and integrated landscape management. Although the Eswatini results are context-specific, the workflow offers a transferable way to connect fire histories, socio-ecological contexts and place-based stewardship in African mosaic landscapes.