Beyond the ‘big brother – little brother’ paradigm: revisiting the nature of the Turkish–Azerbaijani relationship

Famously known as ‘one nation, two states’, the Turkish-Azerbaijani relationship has traditionally been viewed as asymmetric, with Turkey being the dominant actor. Although grounded in the history of bilateral relations and disproportionate military, economic, and diplomatic power and concomitant regional influence, the asymmetry has not always guaranteed Turkey an upper hand over Azerbaijan. To account for a more accurate explanation of the outcome of interactions between the two countries, this article revisits Azerbaijan’s actorness in its relations with Turkey. It views national power as contingent not simply on material indicators, but also on the context, as states’ ability to affect the behaviour of others can fluctuate from issue to issue, sometimes rendering asymmetry irrelevant. The article shows how it played out in Baku-Ankara relations in times of crisis, by examining the cases of the Armenian-Turkish ‘football diplomacy’ and Turkish-Azerbaijani gas disputes. It explains how and why Azerbaijan was able to win the disputes and influence Turkey’s foreign policy behaviour.