A Risk-Based Methodology for Forecasting Damages From Extremely Hazardous AIr Pollution From Transport in Saint-Petersburg

In the context of an extraordinary global environmental crisis, characterized by catastrophic climate change, the decline of biodiversity, the pollution of the human air with pollutants, and, consequently, an unprecedented rise in disease rates in densely populated industrial agglomerations around the world, the issue of monitoring extremely hazardous air pollution from urban transport is examined based on the damage caused to the population in Saint-Petersburg. Monitoring is carried out using indicators of expected «costs» (damages) «uncompensated» by market mechanisms for that portion of the urban population that, by not participating in the organization of transportation services and profiting from these activities, is most vulnerable to the risks of deteriorating living conditions as a result of air pollution. Original assessment models and algorithms for calculating «external costs» are adapted to modern approaches to state «compensation» implemented in certain foreign countries, taking into account the actual technical condition of operating urban transport and the financial, demographic, and social environment of Saint-Petersburg. Estimates are provided for the extreme, excessive accumulation of soot particles, sulfur oxides, nitrogen, carbon, and hydrocarbons in the air. The estimates are expressed in physical and monetary terms, measured by the negative effects of poor health, deterioration in the quality of agricultural products, damage to infrastructure, and global warming.