The Innovation Spillover Effects of Forward-Looking Information Disclosure by Supply Chain Hub Firms: Based on the Moderating Role of Node Firms’ Information Absorptive Capacity

The impact of chain-leading (hub) firms’ forward-looking information disclosure on supply chain collaborative innovation remains underexplored. Based on panel data of Chinese A-share manufacturing listed firms from 2014 to 2024, this study adopts large-scale textual analysis to construct a time-varying indicator measuring hub firms’ forward-looking disclosure, and systematically examines its innovation spillover effects and internal mechanisms. The results show that hub firms’ forward-looking disclosure is positively associated with a significant increase in the R&D investment intensity of supply-chain node firms. This spillover effect is negatively moderated by node firms’ information absorptive capacity, reflecting a typical information substitution effect. Heterogeneity tests further reveal that the spillover effect is more pronounced among node firms with larger scale, higher supply-chain network centrality, and stronger supply-chain relationship specificity (proxied by higher customer concentration). In addition, such innovation spillovers are positively associated with improved corporate financial performance, and this profit-conversion effect is more pronounced among high-leverage firms, which is consistent with an implicit endorsement mechanism that helps alleviate financing constraints. Combining empirical evidence with industrial governance practice, this paper expands the theoretical boundary of supply chain collaborative innovation and provides actionable recommendations for optimizing information disclosure rules and formulating differentiated industrial innovation policies.