Time-Varying Recidivism Risk Following Release from Long-Term Incarceration

This study examines recidivism among 5,456 individuals released from Illinois state prisons between 2009 and 2019 after serving at least 10 consecutive years of incarceration. The study has two aims: first, to document patterns and timing of rearrest following release from long-term incarceration; and second, to examine whether demographic characteristics, criminal history, and sentencing features are associated with variation in post-release trajectories. The analysis employs time-to-event (survival) methods, including flexible parametric models that allow rearrest risk to vary over time. Results show that rearrest risk is highly front-loaded, declining sharply after release. Older age at release was increasingly protective over time, while prior incarceration history was associated with delayed and accumulating risk, suggesting reentry policy should prioritize early post-release support.