Driving Mechanisms and Scenario-Based Simulation of Renewable Energy Penetration Evolution in China

Enhancing renewable energy penetration (REP) is essential for accelerating the low-carbon transition of the power system. The evolution of REP is driven by the interaction of multiple factors, including policy, technology, market demand, and environmental constraints. Based on the system dynamics (SD) method, this study constructs a model to simulate the evolution of REP in China during 2012–2060 under business-as-usual (BAU), single-factor, and synergistic scenarios. The results show that, by 2060, REP reaches 77.17% under the BAU scenario. REP improvement is most pronounced under the policy support scenario, reaching 80.71%, while REP increases by 4.58%, 1.94%, 2.36%, and 1.30% relative to BAU under the policy support, technological innovation, market demand expansion, and environmental constraint scenarios, respectively. After 2030, the effect of market demand expansion gradually strengthens and surpasses environmental constraints and technological innovation, with the crossover points corresponding to REP levels of 41.69% and 57.19%, respectively. The synergistic scenario analysis further shows that policy–market synergy is the most effective pathway, with REP reaching 81.21% by 2060, followed by policy–technology synergy at 80.89%. In contrast, policy–environment synergy (80.48%) does not outperform the single policy support scenario. This suggests that environmental constraints need to be coordinated with market-based consumption and technological support to effectively promote REP.