Research on Subject Field Potential and Price Driving Boundary in Securities Market Based on Real-Virtual Dual Field Theory ——A Case Study of Multi-agent Game on a Single Stock

Mainstream finance has long remained at the level of phenomenon description and behavioral bias explanation for the game difference between institutional investors and retail investors in the securities market, lacking a unified mathematical underlying framework. Based on the dual axiom system of Real-Virtual Dual Field Theory (RVDT), this paper defines the securities market as a typical virtual field game space, proposes a quantitative indicator of single-subject virtual field potential intensity, divides the trend driving levels of different capital volumes with the conjugate golden critical value of 0.382 as the core threshold, and deduces the mapping relationship between field potential and price fluctuation amplitude. Taking a single stock with a market value of 100 million yuan as a numerical example, this paper completes a complete numerical calculation of the field potential intensity, market driving ability and price fluctuation boundary of two types of institutional investors and two types of retail investors. Furthermore, four groups of cross-cycle financial historical cases including the 1997 Thai Baht Crisis and the 1998 Hong Kong Financial Defense War are selected for backtesting verification, which proves the rationality of the 0.382 critical threshold from a historical dimension. The results show that capital volume determines the intensity of virtual field potential. When the field potential breaks through the 38.2% critical value, the subject has the independent ability to shape the market trend. The field potential of retail investors is generally lower than 1%, with no significant disturbance to prices, and can only passively follow the trend. From the perspective of physical field, this paper reveals the endogenous mathematical essence of "institution-led, retail-passive" in the securities market, and provides a new unified analytical framework for the study of market microstructure. Key words: Real-Virtual Dual Field Theory; Virtual Field Potential; Conjugate Golden Decay; Securities Market; Capital Game; Price Driving Boundary 摘要 主流金融学对证券市场大小资金的博弈差异长期停留在现象描述与行为偏差解释层面,缺乏统一的数理底层框架。本文基于实虚二元场论(Real-Virtual Dual Field Theory, RVDT)的双层二元公理体系,将证券市场定义为典型虚场博弈空间,提出单主体虚场势强度量化指标,以共轭黄金临界值 0.382 为核心阈值,划分不同资金体量的趋势驱动等级,并推导场势与价格波动幅度的映射关系。研究以单只市值 1 亿元的个股为算例,对两类机构投资者与两类散户的场势强度、行情带动能力、价格波动边界进行了完整数值测算;进一步选取 1997 泰铢危机、1998 香港金融保卫战等四组跨周期金融历史案例开展回测验证,从史实维度佐证 0.382 临界阈值的合理性。结果表明:资金体量决定虚场势强度,当场势突破 38.2% 临界值时,主体具备独立塑造行情的控盘能力;散户场势普遍低于 1%,对价格无显著扰动能力,只能被动跟随趋势。本文从物理场视角揭示了证券市场 “机构主导、散户被动” 的内生数理本质,为市场微观结构研究提供了全新的统一分析框架。 关键词:实虚二元场论;虚场势;共轭黄金衰减;证券市场;资金博弈;价格驱动边界