Enabling Refinery Integration for Plastic Waste Recycling: A Probabilistic Techno-economic Analysis and Carbon Footprint Assessment of Poly-Crude Production

High Resolution Image Download MS PowerPoint Slide Plastic waste recycling remains constrained by limited cost competitiveness and energy-intensive conversion and separation. Here, we evaluate the conversion of plastic waste into refinery-compatible “poly-crude” as a pathway for plastic reintegration into existing petrochemical infrastructure, potentially eliminating the need for dedicated downstream upgrading facilities and associated capital investments. We present an early-stage, system-level sustainability assessment of poly-crude production, evaluating two hydroconversion pathways (hydrocracking and hydrogenolysis) and multiple hydrogen supply strategies. Economic performance was assessed using probabilistic technoeconomic analysis integrating process modeling, Latin hypercube uncertainty sampling, and global sensitivity analyses, while environmental performance was evaluated through scenario-based greenhouse gas (GHG) emission calculations. Results show that 20% of simulated cases achieve poly-crude minimum selling prices (MSPs) below the benchmark crude-oil price, indicating constrained profitability. Scenario analysis reveals that profitability requires hydrocracking with on-site green hydrogen production, poly-crude yields above 90%, feedstock prices below $0.3 kg −1, and capacities exceeding 250 tons day −1 . GHG emissions are highly sensitive to the electricity mix and hydrogen conversion pathway, making any potential benefits relative to crude oil strongly scenario-dependent. This work provides the first probabilistic, system-level evaluation of plastic waste hydroconversion to refinery-compatible intermediates and identifies key performance targets and research priorities for improving process viability.