EXPRESS: Merger Control: Assumptions, Predictions, and Real-World Customer Outcome

This paper examines the effects of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) on customers, focusing on the disconnect between how competition authorities assess transactions and the factors that drive customer welfare, particularly the role of post-M&A integration. The paper juxtaposes competition authorities’ assessments with customers’ actual experiences from M&A transactions and post-M&A integration. The study draws on ninety-one interviews conducted across twelve international M&A cases, along with an analysis of 450 evaluations by a competition authority, encompassing 15,000 pages of documentation. The findings reveal a pattern that diverges from evaluations grounded in economic theory and assumptions of positive integration effects. The paper namely concludes that post-M&A integration resulting in product discontinuation and diminished focus on product development have both immediate and long-term consequences for customers. Ownership and control alone are poor predictors of customer outcomes and the form of integration that follows.