A novel nomogram for predicting 3-year mortality in critically ill patients after coronary artery bypass grafting

BACKGROUND: The long-term outcomes for patients after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) have been received more and more concern. The existing prediction models are mostly focused on in-hospital operative mortality after CABG, but there is still little research on long-term mortality prediction model for patients after CABG. OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a novel nomogram for predicting 3-year mortality in critically ill patients after CABG. METHODS: Data for developing novel predictive model were extracted from Medical Information Mart for Intensive cart III (MIMIC-III), of which 2929 critically ill patients who underwent CABG at the first admission were enrolled. The nomogram indicated accurate discrimination in primary (AUC: 0.81) and validation cohort (AUC: 0.802), which were better than traditional severity scores. And good consistency between the predictive and observed outcome was showed by the calibration curve for 3-year mortality. The decision curve analysis also showed higher clinical net benefit than traditional severity scores. CONCLUSION: The novel nomogram had well performance to predict 3-year mortality in critically ill patients after CABG. The prediction model provided valuable information for treatment strategy and postdischarge management, which may be helpful in improving the long-term prognosis in critically ill patients after CABG.